Since you don't know the future, and often enough not even the past, it is with great sadness that I have to tell you painfully obvious things.

1. The US did not invade for the oil.

Conspiracy theorists everywhere did a lot of jumping up and down over the ludicrous concept that the US government, in cahoots with the oil lobby conducted the attacks to get control of the mid east oil. I can tell you that is not true. If you are blind enough to the true wisdom of my words, and need further proof than just my simple stating the obvious (which you normally shouldn't), consider some facts :


1.1.The world oil production went down, in spite of the US winning both wars.

1.2.The mid east oil production went down a lot, in spite of the US winning both wars.

1.3.If you want to produce oil, are you going to get more of it cheaper when you have in charge a bloodthirsty dictator in a Mideastern country, or a sloppy corporation like Halliburton (which still has to account about 1Billion in money it got, it spent and nobody knows what for). Do you really want to pay 5.5 an hour to people working the wells, and give them health insurance and whatnot ? Do you really think, at a time when all companies offshore/outsource to India, the US government should do the opposite, and integrate the middle east ?

1.4.The money spent on the wars are enough to buy the entire world production of oil for a couple of years. Would you pay retail price for a car just to be allowed to test drive it ?

2. The US did not invade as part of a public relations stunt.

Conspiracy theorists everywhere did a lot of jumping up and down over the ludicrous concept that the US government, in cahoots with the oil lobby conducted the attacks to get control of the mid east oil. I can tell you that is not true. If you are blind enough to the true wisdom of my words, and need further proof than just my simple stating the obvious (which you normally shouldn't), consider some facts :

2.1.The US government spent a lot of money in there, and got virtually nothing out of it, as far as PR goes, at home. They however cashed in massive penalties everywhere abroad. Overall, spent money to lose points.

2.2.The US presence did not in fact find any terrorists, any weapons of mass destruction, nor did it prevent in any way further terrorist attacks, such as important bombings in Europe the past two years.

2.3.The US invasion did in fact expose the shit hole that secret services have become lately, especially since all the laws passed that essentially forbidden them to do anything above collecting and shredding useless paperwork.

3. The US did not invade as part of a "cultural clash". In fact, the Arabs, as much as they think themselves the injured party, scapegoated and oppressed for no reason, victims of a warmongering people do not even get a spoken part in this movie. They do not/did not matter. It has nothing to do with the Arabs, with the Jews, with the terrorists or with the WMD's.

Simple enough. After the fall of communist Russia, America is a lone super power. On the global chessboard, there are a few important actors left. The EU is not perceived as a threat of any sort, partly because its military technology sucks, partly because it's not interested to attack anyone, partly for historical and cultural reasons. Japan is a steadfast ally. Russia simply does not matter. Africa is just about to disapear demographically due to their inability to...well... do pretty much anything, like for instance plumbing. Or reading. Or generally making any sense whatsoever.

China is a huge cohesive block, with plentiful mineral and demographic resources, united under a neo communist government that has just enough of a myopic nationalist stench to it to be worrisome. Further, in all the 3 historical instances when China and the US fought, the US got its butt kicked so badly it didn't sit down for a week. There is just one country in the world right now that could afford a war with the US, and would have a reasonable chance to win it, and that country is China. So, if you were a military strategist, what would be the two things you would do ? (Yes, exactly two)

1. Get the ballistic missile shield firmly in place, because those bastards DO have the bomb, but no real technological edge in rocketry.
2. Get some real outposts as close as feasible, to ensure in case there is a war, it won't be on your home turf. Now look at a map. Where is Iraq ? Where is Afghanistan ? If you wanted some well placed bases, to complement your bases in Japan, where oh where would they be ? Siberia is off limits because of the climate and because the Russians would rather eat with chopsticks for the rest of their lives.

1. The Jews will be most pleased with the Arabs getting punched.
2. It is relatively easy to justify an invasion of Arab countries, even in spite of ratified international conventions, and in defiance of the UN, using the terrorist speech combined with the "spread of democracy" speech.
3. They have virtually no army to speak of, their old tanks and AK's being really no object in modern warfare.
4. Oil is always nice to have
5. In their naivety, they will actually help out, sacrificing their lives to "attack the American invader", and thus doing their part in helping the US war effort, for free !

Just consider the beauty of it. You are stuck with a huge army that is mostly pussies, living the good life in forts that look more like tourist resorts than anything, and who are slowly getting fat and useless, and have been for twenty years or so. They don't even consider they are meant to die, they think their personal security should be their government's foremost preoccupation. But now you have the opportunity to move the lot into the desert, where they can get used to eating beef jerky again, and slim down a bit, while pretending it's all for a good reason, and the Arabs will be more than happy to prove it for you, and help with the training.

Because the Arab nationalism will push confused youths to suicide themselves by throwing bombs/rifles/rocks at just the biggest war machine in the world, for the greater glory of Allah. What does that accomplish ? Will it drive the Americans out ? Not a chance in hell. Will it break them down or anything ? Nope.

Only thing it will do is it will give them some casualties (which are really minimal, the US hasn't even lost 5% of its deployed forces, in two wars. Comparatively, in WW2 the belligerents lost a good half of the total deployed forces in about as long an interval). Does Rumsfeld mind some casualties ? Man said "we don't fight the war we want with the weapons we would like to have, we fight the war that is with the weapons we got". It will also give them some target practice, and some free pressure/real battle situations simulation. Does Rumsfeld mind that ? He couldn't care less. Because his job is to get a real army entrenched as close to the enemy as possible, and the enemy is, currently, China. And he's doing a great job. Three cheers.